Контекстная модерация антииммигрантских мотиваций к голосованию за радикальные правые партии в Европе
Научная статья
Для цитирования
Сафронов В. В. Контекстная модерация антииммигрантских мотиваций к голосованию за радикальные правые партии в Европе // Власть и элиты. 2024. Том 8. № 2. С. 134–188. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31119/pe.2021.8.2.6 EDN: CRQIUJ
Аннотация
Рассматриваются общественные условия в странах Европы, способствующие успехам на парламентских выборах радикальных правых партий (РПП). В предшествующих исследованиях, которые нередко приводят к рассогласованным результатам, недостаточно внимания уделялось теоретическому обоснованию и эмпирической проверке предположений, связанных с влиянием социетального контекста на зависимость между антииммигрантскими аттитюдами и электоральной поддержкой РПП. Анализ опросных данных Европейского социального исследования (ESS, последние раунды) и целого ряда контекстуальных факторов, различающих страны Европы по состоянию экономики, иммигрантского населения, преступности, партийных систем и культуры, проводился статистическими методами двухуровневого логистического моделирования. Он показал, что негативное отношение опрошенных к иммиграции является важнейшей причиной их электоральной поддержки радикальных националистических партий. Эта зависимость особенно отчетливо проявляется в западных странах, но ее можно обнаружить и в Восточной Европе. Структурные, институциональные и культурные факторы лишь очень слабо связаны с неодинаковыми показателями успеха этих партий в изучавшихся странах. Наиболее отчетливая зависимость обнаруживается при рассмотрении партийных систем. Результаты показывают, что правым радикалам удается добиться успеха в том случае, когда их избирательные призывы получают легитимацию благодаря смещению в консервативнонационалистическом направлении основной правой партии или партийной системы в целом. Им удается привлечь больше избирателей также при высокой значимости в партийной системе социокультурных проблем и сильной поляризации партийных позиций по этим проблемам. Целый ряд контекстуальных факторов выступают модераторами зависимостей между антииммигрантскими убеждениями опрошенных и голосованием за РПП. Индивиды, придерживающиеся этих убеждений, отдают свои голоса радикальным партиям особенно охотно, когда в стране живет много иммигрантов или их число быстро растет. Еще одно важное условие — продвижение общества по траектории постиндустриального развития. Антииммигрантские мотивации голосования за националистические партии усиливаются с повышением экономического благосостояния, расширением сектора услуг, укреплением социального государства и при ценностном сдвиге в культуре от ориентаций на устранение тревоги к личностному развитию.
Ключевые слова:
радикальные правые партии, парламентские выборы, голосование, антииммигрантские убеждения, контекстуальные общественные факторы, эффекты модерации, Европейское социальное исследование (ESS Round 9)
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Статья
Поступила: 27.07.2021
Опубликована: 28.10.2021
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ACM
[1]
Сафронов, В.В. 2024. Контекстная модерация антииммигрантских мотиваций к голосованию за радикальные правые партии в Европе. Власть и элиты. 8, 2 (окт. 2024), 134–188. DOI:https://doi.org/10.31119/pe.2021.8.2.6.
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