Контекстные модерации электоральных образовательных неравенств в странах Европы
Научная статья
Для цитирования
Сафронов В. В. Контекстные модерации электоральных образовательных неравенств в странах Европы // Власть и элиты. 2024. Том 11. № 1. С. 40-70. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31119/pe.2024.11.1.2 EDN: NGJZJY
Аннотация
Рассматриваются образовательные неравенства участия избирателей в парламентских выборах в странах Европы и России. Эти неравенства, отражая, как свидетельствуют исследования в Западной и Восточной Европе, одни из наиболее отчетливых структурных различий в голосовании, могут заметно отличаться в разных странах, предположительно вследствие особенностей их социально-экономического развития и демократических институтов. С целью проверки этих предположений рассматриваются опросные данные Европейского социального исследования (ESS, Round 9), проведенного в 28 европейских странах, включая Россию (Round 8), а также статистические и аналитические сведения о распространенности коррупции в этих странах, состоянии безработицы и других характеристиках. Статистический анализ осуществляется при помощи двухуровневого логистического моделирования — со случайными коэффициентами для переменных индивидуального уровня и объяснением их различий контекстуальными факторами. Результаты подтверждают, что участие в парламентских выборах тесно связано с образованием избирателей — с его ростом существенно повышается вероятность голосования. Выраженность такой зависимости обусловлена общественным контекстом — электоральная активность образованных страт начинает снижаться по мере ухудшения работы демократических институтов, зафиксированного показателем распространенности коррупции. При нарастании в стране экономических проблем, о которых свидетельствуют повышенные уровни безработицы, растет вероятность того, что люди с невысоким образованием примут участие в избрании парламента.
Ключевые слова:
парламентские выборы, неравенства участия по образованию, общественный контекст, воспринимаемая коррупция, безработица, страны Европы и Россия, Европейское социальное исследование (ESS)
Литература
1. Сафронов В.В. Коррупция и электоральные классовые неравенства в европейских странах // Власть и элиты. 2023. Т. 10. № 1. С. 5–42. https://doi.org/10.31119/pe.2023.10.1.1. EDN: VFIYXP
2. Сафронов В.В. Участие в выборах Государственной Думы: социальные неравенства, мотивации и мобилизация // Власть и элиты. 2023b. Т. 10. № 2. С. 121–169. https://doi.org/10.31119/pe.2023.10.2.6. EDN: ANXPUL
3. Banducci S.A., Karp J.A. Electoral systems, efficacy, and voter turnout. The Comparative Study of Electoral Systems. Ed. by H.-D. Klingemann. New York: Oxford University Press, 2009. P. 109–134.
4. Birch S. Elections and voters. Developments in Central and East European Politics Ed. by S. White, P.G. Lewis, J. Batt. Durham: Duke University Press, 2013. P. 156–170.
5. Blais A. To Vote or not to vote? The merits and limits of rational choice. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 2000. 208 p.
6. Blais A. Turnout in elections. The Oxford handbook of political behavior. Ed. by R.J. Dalton, H.D. Klingemann. New York: Oxford University Press. 2007. P. 621–635. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199270125.003.0033
7. Blais A., Daoust J.-F. The Motivation to vote: Explaining electoral participation. Vancouver: UBC Press, 2020. 156 p. https://doi.org/10.1080/00344893.2020.1837213
8. Blais A., Dassonneville R., Kostelka F. Political equality and turnout. The Oxford handbook of political representation in liberal democracies. Ed. by R. Rohrschneider, J. Thomassen. New York: Oxford University Press. 2020. P. 396–412. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198825081.013.20
9. Cancela J., Geys B. Explaining voter turnout: A meta-analysis of national and subnational elections. Electoral Studies. 2016. Vol. 42. P. 264–275. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.03.005.
10. Colton T.J. Transitional citizens: Voters and what influences them in the new Russia. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2000. 336 p.
11. Cruz J.N. A Fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis of how corruption, education, inequality and trust in parliament affect voter-turnout. Crime, Law and Social Change. 2023. Vol. 80. No. 5. P. 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10611–023–10102–0
12. Dalton R.J. The Participation Gap: Social Status and Political Inequality. New York: Oxford University Press, 2017. 280 p. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198733607.001.0001
13. DeBell M., Krosnick J.A., Gera K., Yeager D.S., McDonald M.P. The turnout gap in surveys: explanations and solutions. Sociological Methods & Research. 2020. Vol. 49. No. 4. P. 1133–1162. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124118769085
14. Gallego A. Unequal political participation worldwide. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2015. 252 p. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139151726
15. Hadjar A., Beck M. Who does not participate in elections in Europe and why is this? A multilevel analysis of social mechanisms behind non-voting. European Societies. 2010. Vol. 12. No. 4. P. 521–542. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616696.2010.483007
16. Jackson R.A. Clarifying the relationship between education and turnout. American Politics Research. 1995. Vol. 23. No. 3. P. 279–299. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X9502300302
17. Kittilson M.C., Anderson C.J. Electoral supply and voter turnout. Citizens, context, and choice: How context shapes citizens’ electoral choices. Ed. by R.J. Dalton, C.J. Anderson. New York: Oxford University Press. 2011. P. 33–54.
18. Kostelka F. The state of political participation in post-communist democracies: Low but surprisingly little biased citizen engagement. Europe-Asia Studies. 2014. Vol. 66. No. 6. P. 945–968. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2014.905386
19. Laakso M., Taagepera R. “Effective” number of parties: A measure with application to West Europe. Comparative Political Studies. 1979. Vol. 12. No. 1. P. 3–27. https://doi.org/10.1177/001041407901200101
20. Lahtinen H., Martikainen P., Mattila M., Wass H., Rapeli L. Do surveys overestimate or underestimate socioeconomic differences in voter turnout? Evidence from administrative registers. Public Opinion Quarterly. 2019. Vol. 83. No. 2. P. 363–385. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfz022
21. Leighley J.E., Nagler J. Who votes now? Demographics, issues, inequality, and turnout in the United States. Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2013. 232 p.
22. McAllister I., White S. Demobilizing voters: Election turnout in the 2016 Russian election. Russian Politics. 2017. Vol. 2. No. 4. P. 411–433. https://doi.org/10.1163/2451–8921–00204002
23. Persson M. Review Article: Education and Political Participation. British Journal of Political Science. 2013. Vol. 45. No. 3. P. 689–703. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123413000409
24. Plutzer E. Demographics and the social bases of voter turnout. The Routledge handbook of elections, voting behavior and public opinion. Ed. by J. Fisher, E. Fieldhouse, M.N. Franklin, R. Gibson, M. Cantijoch, C. Wlezien. London and New York: Routledge, 2018. P. 69–82.
25. Raudenbush S.W., Bryk A.S. Hierarchical linear models: Applications and data analysis methods. Second Edition. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. 2002. 512 p.
26. Schlozman K.L., Brady H.E., Verba S. Unequal and unrepresented: Political inequality and the people’s voice in the new gilded age. Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2018. 352 p.
27. Selb P., Munzert S. Voter overrepresentation, vote misreporting, and turnout bias in postelection surveys. Electoral Studies. 2013. Vol. 32. No. 1. P. 186–196. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2012.11.004
28. Smets K., van Ham C. The embarrassment of riches? A meta-analysis of individual-level research on voter turnout. Electoral Studies. 2013. Vol. 32. No. 2. P. 344–359. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2012.12.006
29. Solt F. Economic inequality and democratic political engagement. American Journal of Political Science. 2008. Vol. 52. No. 1. P. 48–60. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540–5907.2007.00298.x.
30. Stockemer D. What affects voter turnout? A review article/meta-analysis of aggregate research. Government and Opposition. 2017. Vol. 52. No. 4. P. 698–722. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2016.30.
31. Verba S., Schlozman K.L., Brady H.E. Voice and equality: Civic voluntarism in American democracy. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1995. 664 p.
32. Wass H., Blais A. Turnout. The SAGE handbook of electoral behaviour. Vol. 1. Ed. by K. Arzheimer, J. Evans, M.S. Lewis-Beck. London: Sage. 2017. P. 459–487.
33. Willeck C., Mendelberg Т. Education and political participation. Annual Review of Political Science. 2022. Vol. 25. P. 89–110. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurevpolisci–051120–014235
34. Wolfinger R., Rosenstone S. Who votes? New Haven: Yale University Press, 1980. 160 p.
35. World Social Protection Report 2017–19: Universal social protection to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Geneva: ILO, International Labour Office, 2017. 432 p.
2. Сафронов В.В. Участие в выборах Государственной Думы: социальные неравенства, мотивации и мобилизация // Власть и элиты. 2023b. Т. 10. № 2. С. 121–169. https://doi.org/10.31119/pe.2023.10.2.6. EDN: ANXPUL
3. Banducci S.A., Karp J.A. Electoral systems, efficacy, and voter turnout. The Comparative Study of Electoral Systems. Ed. by H.-D. Klingemann. New York: Oxford University Press, 2009. P. 109–134.
4. Birch S. Elections and voters. Developments in Central and East European Politics Ed. by S. White, P.G. Lewis, J. Batt. Durham: Duke University Press, 2013. P. 156–170.
5. Blais A. To Vote or not to vote? The merits and limits of rational choice. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 2000. 208 p.
6. Blais A. Turnout in elections. The Oxford handbook of political behavior. Ed. by R.J. Dalton, H.D. Klingemann. New York: Oxford University Press. 2007. P. 621–635. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199270125.003.0033
7. Blais A., Daoust J.-F. The Motivation to vote: Explaining electoral participation. Vancouver: UBC Press, 2020. 156 p. https://doi.org/10.1080/00344893.2020.1837213
8. Blais A., Dassonneville R., Kostelka F. Political equality and turnout. The Oxford handbook of political representation in liberal democracies. Ed. by R. Rohrschneider, J. Thomassen. New York: Oxford University Press. 2020. P. 396–412. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198825081.013.20
9. Cancela J., Geys B. Explaining voter turnout: A meta-analysis of national and subnational elections. Electoral Studies. 2016. Vol. 42. P. 264–275. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2016.03.005.
10. Colton T.J. Transitional citizens: Voters and what influences them in the new Russia. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2000. 336 p.
11. Cruz J.N. A Fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis of how corruption, education, inequality and trust in parliament affect voter-turnout. Crime, Law and Social Change. 2023. Vol. 80. No. 5. P. 1–21. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10611–023–10102–0
12. Dalton R.J. The Participation Gap: Social Status and Political Inequality. New York: Oxford University Press, 2017. 280 p. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198733607.001.0001
13. DeBell M., Krosnick J.A., Gera K., Yeager D.S., McDonald M.P. The turnout gap in surveys: explanations and solutions. Sociological Methods & Research. 2020. Vol. 49. No. 4. P. 1133–1162. https://doi.org/10.1177/0049124118769085
14. Gallego A. Unequal political participation worldwide. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2015. 252 p. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139151726
15. Hadjar A., Beck M. Who does not participate in elections in Europe and why is this? A multilevel analysis of social mechanisms behind non-voting. European Societies. 2010. Vol. 12. No. 4. P. 521–542. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616696.2010.483007
16. Jackson R.A. Clarifying the relationship between education and turnout. American Politics Research. 1995. Vol. 23. No. 3. P. 279–299. https://doi.org/10.1177/1532673X9502300302
17. Kittilson M.C., Anderson C.J. Electoral supply and voter turnout. Citizens, context, and choice: How context shapes citizens’ electoral choices. Ed. by R.J. Dalton, C.J. Anderson. New York: Oxford University Press. 2011. P. 33–54.
18. Kostelka F. The state of political participation in post-communist democracies: Low but surprisingly little biased citizen engagement. Europe-Asia Studies. 2014. Vol. 66. No. 6. P. 945–968. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2014.905386
19. Laakso M., Taagepera R. “Effective” number of parties: A measure with application to West Europe. Comparative Political Studies. 1979. Vol. 12. No. 1. P. 3–27. https://doi.org/10.1177/001041407901200101
20. Lahtinen H., Martikainen P., Mattila M., Wass H., Rapeli L. Do surveys overestimate or underestimate socioeconomic differences in voter turnout? Evidence from administrative registers. Public Opinion Quarterly. 2019. Vol. 83. No. 2. P. 363–385. https://doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfz022
21. Leighley J.E., Nagler J. Who votes now? Demographics, issues, inequality, and turnout in the United States. Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2013. 232 p.
22. McAllister I., White S. Demobilizing voters: Election turnout in the 2016 Russian election. Russian Politics. 2017. Vol. 2. No. 4. P. 411–433. https://doi.org/10.1163/2451–8921–00204002
23. Persson M. Review Article: Education and Political Participation. British Journal of Political Science. 2013. Vol. 45. No. 3. P. 689–703. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123413000409
24. Plutzer E. Demographics and the social bases of voter turnout. The Routledge handbook of elections, voting behavior and public opinion. Ed. by J. Fisher, E. Fieldhouse, M.N. Franklin, R. Gibson, M. Cantijoch, C. Wlezien. London and New York: Routledge, 2018. P. 69–82.
25. Raudenbush S.W., Bryk A.S. Hierarchical linear models: Applications and data analysis methods. Second Edition. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage. 2002. 512 p.
26. Schlozman K.L., Brady H.E., Verba S. Unequal and unrepresented: Political inequality and the people’s voice in the new gilded age. Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press, 2018. 352 p.
27. Selb P., Munzert S. Voter overrepresentation, vote misreporting, and turnout bias in postelection surveys. Electoral Studies. 2013. Vol. 32. No. 1. P. 186–196. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2012.11.004
28. Smets K., van Ham C. The embarrassment of riches? A meta-analysis of individual-level research on voter turnout. Electoral Studies. 2013. Vol. 32. No. 2. P. 344–359. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2012.12.006
29. Solt F. Economic inequality and democratic political engagement. American Journal of Political Science. 2008. Vol. 52. No. 1. P. 48–60. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540–5907.2007.00298.x.
30. Stockemer D. What affects voter turnout? A review article/meta-analysis of aggregate research. Government and Opposition. 2017. Vol. 52. No. 4. P. 698–722. https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2016.30.
31. Verba S., Schlozman K.L., Brady H.E. Voice and equality: Civic voluntarism in American democracy. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1995. 664 p.
32. Wass H., Blais A. Turnout. The SAGE handbook of electoral behaviour. Vol. 1. Ed. by K. Arzheimer, J. Evans, M.S. Lewis-Beck. London: Sage. 2017. P. 459–487.
33. Willeck C., Mendelberg Т. Education and political participation. Annual Review of Political Science. 2022. Vol. 25. P. 89–110. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurevpolisci–051120–014235
34. Wolfinger R., Rosenstone S. Who votes? New Haven: Yale University Press, 1980. 160 p.
35. World Social Protection Report 2017–19: Universal social protection to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Geneva: ILO, International Labour Office, 2017. 432 p.
Статья
Поступила: 20.08.2024
Опубликована: 25.12.2024
Форматы цитирования
Другие форматы цитирования:
ACM
[1]
Сафронов, В.В. 2024. Контекстные модерации электоральных образовательных неравенств в странах Европы. Власть и элиты. 11, 1 (дек. 2024), 40-70. DOI:https://doi.org/10.31119/pe.2024.11.1.2.
Раздел
Элиты и политика в Европе
